Monday, March 19, 2012

women's tournament predictions

Kingston region:
#8 Kansas state 48 vs. #1 UConn 74.
This is the 5th time in 11 years Kansas state has ended up in UConn's bracket, but first time they will get the chance to play them.  Last year as an 8 seed, Kansas state lost to Purdue in Storrs in the first round.
#3 Miami 65 @ #11 Gonzaga 72.
Don't call it an upset!  Last year Gonzaga got to play their first 4 NCAA tournament games at home in Spokane, WA which is not surprising they made it to the elite 8 as an 11 seed last year.  This year they play the first 2 rounds at home, and get a decided advantage against a team traveling 2,800 miles west.  Miami was 3-3 in true road games against NCAA tournament teams this year.
#7 Green Bay 73 vs. #2 Kentucky 61.
Another game which shouldn't be that much of an upset.  Green Bay is 31-1 on the season and probably underseeded, and Kentucky is probably overseeded.  Green Bay knocked off host Iowa state Saturday while UK had trouble against 15th seeded McNeese state
Raleigh region:
#7 Louisville 65 @ #2 Maryland 64.
Coin flip game, but going with the Big East team since I have them advancing in my bracket
#6 Arkansas 54 @ #3 Texas A&M 73.
Texas A&M is the defending champions, they won't lose at home
Fresno region:
#1 Stanford 78 vs. #8 West Virginia 69.
This should be closer then it probably should be.  Stanford has won 29 in a row since a loss to UConn in mid November, but haven't really been challenged.  Of those 29 wins, only 4 have come against teams that made the tournament.   West Virginia tied for 4th in the rugged Big East and handed Notre Dame 1 of only 3 losses on the year and the only 1 at home.
#5 South Carolina 56 @ #4 Purdue 54.
Purdue averages 67.3 ppg while USC gives up only 50.4 ppg.  Offense wins during the season, defense wins championships
Des Moines region:
#2 Tennessee 83 @ #7 DePaul 61.
Tennessee is 19-0 all time against DePaul, and has never lost in the round of 32.  That's good enough for me.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Weekend thoughts

Some thoughts on the tournament which got wittled down to 16 yesterday:

-Only 4 times since the NCAA tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985 has a 15 seed defeated a 2 seed and hadn't happened since 2001 when Hampton defeated Iowa state; it happened twice on Friday in a span of about 3 and a half hours.
-Speaking of lower seeds knocking off high seeds UNC-Asheville became only the 3rd 16 seed since 1985 to go into halftime with a lead over a a #1 seed, however Syracuse prevailed in the 2nd half and Michigan state, UNC and Kentucky all won their games by double figures, so we'll have to wait 1 more year to see a 16 defeat a 1.  Mark my words it will happen...eventually.
-The state of Ohio goes 8-0 in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament and will comprise 25% of the sweet 16 field next weekend.  This is the first time ever four teams from one state will make the sweet 16.  Cincinnati rivals Xavier and Cincinnati are still on course to play for the championship and ultimate city bragging rights, but first Cincinnati has to get through Ohio state; the final team, Ohio University, the final team from the buckeye state, gets UNC.
-Want a reason why college basketball is better then the NBA?  If Norfolk state Missouri was an NBA series, Missouri would win that series in 5 games.  However, since it's the NCAA tournament and only one game, Missouri is ending their season a lot early then they had planned because they didn't play as well defensively as they had the whole season and Norfolk state shot about 25% over their season average.  If they play 100 times, Missouri wins 99, however the one they lost is the one that counted.
-Watching a game, you can tell which coaches are good and which one's aren't just by how well their teams handle time management in close games.  Good coaches will go over time and situation at a minimum once a week so it stays fresh in the players mind even in crucial moments.  With 8 seconds left down 3, St. Bonaventure failed to get off a tying 3 pointer against FSU and that falls squarely on the coach.  Taking the 2 with 6 seconds is fine, because you can extend the game and at worst you'd still be down 3, but once you get the offensive rebound off that missed 2, what are you doing taking another 2?  You don't have time to foul them, take the 3!  If the coach had gone over time and situation, they may have been prepared better.
-On the women's side of things, chalk mainly held as it usually does with the exception of Marist who knocked off Georgia and is well on their way to making another sweet 16 appearance for the 2nd time in last 5 seasons, both as 13 seeds.  Alls that standing in their way is St. Bonaventure who won their first NCAA tournament game Sunday.
-I would love to see a Delaware vs. UConn championship game.  Delaware is 30-1 on the year lead by a player of the year candidate Elena Delle Donne, who is the 2nd best player who's ever gone to a small school after Jackie Stiles of Southwest Missouri state who leaf SMS to a final four appearance in 2001.  Elena Delle Donne got recruited by Geno Auriemma to play basketball at UConn and was on Storrs for all of 2 days before she decided to go back to Delaware for reasons unknown.  She took a year off for volleyball, went back to play basketball at Delaware and turned them into a top 7 team in the country.  I'd love to be at the stadium should a UConn vs. Delaware matchup take place for the championship.
The Amherst women's senior class went into Holland, Michigan for the D-3 women's final 4 with an NCAA record 124-6 record including a 51 game winning streak dating back to January of 2011...they left Holland and ended their career with only an overall record of 124-8.  That's the second time in 3 years they've gone into the D-3 final 4 unbeaten on the season only to lose in the semifinals.
- I get why you play consolation games (send out teams on a high note), but I don't see why it's neccesary.  The d-3 consolation game (the men got rid of theirs a few years ago and only the women play one now) was between Amherst and St. Thomas.  Amherst was the reining champs riding a 51 game winning streak before losing, St. Thomas had won 30 straight prior to losing as their last loss was on the first day of the season.  St. Thomas was excited to get another game against a quality opponent to help them next year should they get back in this spot, Amherst had no motivation.  Amherst started the game up 10-8, st. Thomas went on a 20-8 run from there to go up double digits, got the lead as high as 20 in the first half, and Amherst never got it below 7 the rest of the way.  Losing in the semi's is bad enough, I think it's time to scrap the consolation game.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Best day of the year

The first day of the NCAA tournament is one of the best days of the year, if not best day of the year.  Games from 12:15 in the afternoon to about 12 at night across 4 different channels all going on simultaniously, today's the day to have multiple TV's in your house.
As for my predictions I have Baylor, Michigan state, Florida state and Georgetown in the final 4 with Georgetown beating Michigan state for the championship.  Time to enjoy the best 3 weeks of the hoops season!