Monday, March 19, 2012

women's tournament predictions

Kingston region:
#8 Kansas state 48 vs. #1 UConn 74.
This is the 5th time in 11 years Kansas state has ended up in UConn's bracket, but first time they will get the chance to play them.  Last year as an 8 seed, Kansas state lost to Purdue in Storrs in the first round.
#3 Miami 65 @ #11 Gonzaga 72.
Don't call it an upset!  Last year Gonzaga got to play their first 4 NCAA tournament games at home in Spokane, WA which is not surprising they made it to the elite 8 as an 11 seed last year.  This year they play the first 2 rounds at home, and get a decided advantage against a team traveling 2,800 miles west.  Miami was 3-3 in true road games against NCAA tournament teams this year.
#7 Green Bay 73 vs. #2 Kentucky 61.
Another game which shouldn't be that much of an upset.  Green Bay is 31-1 on the season and probably underseeded, and Kentucky is probably overseeded.  Green Bay knocked off host Iowa state Saturday while UK had trouble against 15th seeded McNeese state
Raleigh region:
#7 Louisville 65 @ #2 Maryland 64.
Coin flip game, but going with the Big East team since I have them advancing in my bracket
#6 Arkansas 54 @ #3 Texas A&M 73.
Texas A&M is the defending champions, they won't lose at home
Fresno region:
#1 Stanford 78 vs. #8 West Virginia 69.
This should be closer then it probably should be.  Stanford has won 29 in a row since a loss to UConn in mid November, but haven't really been challenged.  Of those 29 wins, only 4 have come against teams that made the tournament.   West Virginia tied for 4th in the rugged Big East and handed Notre Dame 1 of only 3 losses on the year and the only 1 at home.
#5 South Carolina 56 @ #4 Purdue 54.
Purdue averages 67.3 ppg while USC gives up only 50.4 ppg.  Offense wins during the season, defense wins championships
Des Moines region:
#2 Tennessee 83 @ #7 DePaul 61.
Tennessee is 19-0 all time against DePaul, and has never lost in the round of 32.  That's good enough for me.

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