Sunday, October 28, 2012

Week 9 winners and losers

Winners:

Notre Dame.  Won a 30-17 decision at Oklahoma and remain undefeated.  They will almost certaintly jump into the top 4 of the BCS, and only have 1 challenging game remaing: @ USC on November 24.  Win that and they could very well play for the championship, but the win @ Oklahoma almost certainly locked up a BCS birth for the Irish.
Collin Klein (Kansas state QB).  After recording 7 total TDs last week against West Virginia he recorded 4 yesterday against Texas tech, all 4 in the second half in leading K-state outscoring Tech 42-14 in the second half and a 55-21 rout of the Raiders and continue to be the front runner in the Heisman race.
Georgia.  Saved their season with a 17-9 victory in Jacksonville over Florida in which they kept Florida out of the end zone.  With the win they not only knocked their rivals from the unbeatens and possibly out of the national championship game, the Bulldogs now control their own destiny in the SEC race.  A Florida win would have ended the race.
Washington.  Another team that possibly could have saved their season, and knocked off an unbeaten team.  They looked lifeless in a 52-17 loss in Arizona last week, but hit a field goal with 1:20 left yesterday to get a 20-17 win after blowing a 10-0 lead.
Western Connecticut.  Have to give a shout out to my school who won their first football game since November 2009 yesterday in overtime against Montclair state after the Montclair kicker missed what would have been a game-winning 26 yard field goal at the end of regulation.

Losers:

Tennessee.  Dropped to 0-5 in the SEC for a 3rd straight season after a late fumble resulted in a 38-35 loss.  The days for Tennessee coach Derek Dooly could be numbered.
Gene Chizik (Auburn coach).  Things don't get better for Chizik and the hot seat gets warmer after his Auburn Tigers were smoked at home by Texas A&M 63-21.  Auburn now falls to 1-7 and 0-6 in the SEC this year and who officially is eliminated from participating in a bowl game this year 2 years after winning the 2010 championship.
Oregon.  Its hard to be a loser when you score 70 points and win 70-14, but that's exactly what happened to Oregon this week.  Oregon desperately needed USC & Oregon state to win out up to when Oregon played both of these teams to boost their strength of schedule, but both teams lost.  Even if Oregon is able to beat both Oregon state and USC twice (since Oregon likely would play USC again in the Pac 12 title game) USC would have at least 4 losses at seasons end and possibly 5 if they lose to Notre Dame as well.
Defense in Arizona.  Arizona state and UCLA combined for 1021 yards and 88 points in Tempe while about 110 miles down I-10 in Tucson, USC and Arizona combined for 1206 yards and 75 points including USC's WR Marqise Hill Pac-12 record 345 receving yards and finished with 469 all purpose yards after 2 big kick returns in the game.  Even though USC finished with 618 total yards, 5 turnovers really hurt them in the 3 point loss.
Cincinnati & USC's time management.  On Friday night with about 45 seconds left in the 4th quarter and the game tied, Cincinnati came up with a sack of Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater to bring up a 3rd down.  With 2 timeouts left deep in Cincinnati territory, Cinci could have used the timeouts to get the ball back or make Louisville make a play.  They got bailed out by Louisville calling the timeout after the sack, but the quarter ran out after a holding penalty and a pass competion were the last 2 plays of the game.  The timeouts don't carry over into the next game or into overtime, so if you have them, use them!  You never know if they will have a bad snap, a blocked kick, a good return, etc.  Cinci got the ball first in overtime, turned it over and Louisville won on a field goal on their possession.  The first attempt was a bad snap but was negated by Butch Jones (Cincinnati coach) calling timeout, and the second attempt went right down the the middle.
Bring up USC on Saturday now.  They got the ball back with 55 seconds to play at their own 13 yard line needing to go about 65 yards to get a good attempt at a game tying field goal with 0 timeouts.  The Atlanta Falcons were in the same posistion a couple weeks ago against the Oakland Raiders except they only had 22 seconds and 1 timeout in a tie game.  Atlanta was able to get off 3 plays by using the sidelines and using their timeout and won the game as time expired on a game winning field goal.  In college football it is much easier to run the 1 minute drill because the clock stops on 1st down to move the chains, so even with 0 timeouts you can still use the middle of the field assuming you get the first down.  However, Matt Barkley the QB had no sense of urgency.  They were able to get 3 first downs and move into Arizona territory but they could get no futher and a hail mary at the end bounced off Lee's finger.  More sense of urgency from Barkley and the USC coaching staff, they would have gotten closer then the Arizona 48 yard line and instead of a 48 yard Hail Mary maybe it;s only a 25 yard Hail Mary which is easier to convert.  Coaches have to always know and practice time and situation, and both Cincinnati & USC possibly could have walked away with wins instead of 3 point losses if they knew the time and situation.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Week 9 predictions

There are 4 matchups between top 25 teams on the gridiron this week including 3 matchups between teams in the top 11 which highlight the 5 to watch for the weekend:

1) #5 Notre Dame @ #8 Oklahoma 8 PM on ABC.
Notre Dame leads the series 8-1, but these two storied programs have only met once in the last 44 years (October 30 of 1999 a 34-30 ND win).  Notre Dame is 7-0, Oklahoma is 5-1 and both teams are still alive in the race for the national championship.  For Notre Dame this game, and a game @ USC later on in the season are their only likely stumbling blocks the rest of the year.  Doing no worse then splitting those 2 games to go along with wins over Stanford and Michigan, Notre Dame would seem like the choice to slide into the championship game should one of those top 4 0 loss teams (Kansas state, Florida, Alabama, Oregon) lose.  Oklahoma already has a home loss to #15 Kansas state (now #3) and hasn't lost two games in Norman, OK since 1998 when they finished 5-6.   The Big 12 currently has 5 teams ranked, so winning this game would more than make up for losing to Kansas state earlier and keep Oklahoma in the race.
Prediction: Oklahoma 31 Notre Dame 23

2) #14 Texas Tech @ #3 Kansas state 3 PM on FOX.
Kansas state finished 2nd in the big 12 last year, yet was picked to finish 6th this year.  Texas Tech finished in 9th last year and that's where they were picked preseason.  This matchup proves why preseason polls are meaningless.  This is the end of a brutal 5 game stretch for Texas Tech.  This is the 4th game of a 5 game stretch for the Red Raiders playing ranked teams which ends next week against Texas and the 2nd straight on the road.  Tech blew a 10 point lead with 2:10 to go in regulation, but hung onto beat TCU in triple OT last week while Kansas state routed West Virginia on the road in part of QB Collin Klein's 7 total TDs.  After this, Tech plays only 1 more ranked team the rest of the way (Texas at home) while Kansas state still plays two (Texas at home TCU on the road), and since the Big 12 has no more championship game, Tech still needs a big jump in the standings, and to get that juimp, Tech needs to win this week and next week, but Kansas state is just playing too well.
Prediction: Kansas state 31 Texas Tech 20

3) #2 Florida vs. #10 Georgia 3:30 on CBS (game in Jacksonville).
Every year with the exception of 94 & 95, this rivalry game has been played in Jackosnville, FL roughly half the distance between Georgia's campus in Athens and Florida's campus in Gainesville.  Florida has owned the series of late winning 18 of the last 22 meetings, but Georgia leads the all time series 48-40-2.  A Florida win clinches the SEC Eastern division for them, while a Georgia win leaves them in the drivers seat.
Prediction: Florida 27 Georgia 24

4) Kent state @ #15 Rutgers 3:30 SNY/ESPN Game Plan/ESPN3.com
Kent state is 6-1 with its lone loss to Kentucky being the lone game it has played against a BCS conference opponent this year.  Rutgers is 7-0 and rolling towards its first BCS bowl this year.  However, the MAC is a respectible 3-4 against the Big East Conference this year and Toledo at 6-1 knocked off previously unbeaten Cincinnati last year.  The conference can't possibly do it again, can they??
Prediction: Rutgers 24 Kent state 14

5) Cincinnati @ #14 Louisville.
These two teams came in the Big East together prior to the 05 season, and their rivalry for the Keg of Nails dates back to the days when both teams were in Conference USA.  This lost a little luster when Cincinnati lost to Toledo last week, but both teams are unbeaten in conference, and both teams look to be the biggest threat for Rutgers this year with Cincinnati having a slight edge because their game against Rutgers is at home while Louisville plays Rutgers on the road.
Prediction: Louisville 27 Cincinnati 14

Other games:
Kentucky 17 @ Missouri 10 12:00 PM ESPNU.  Tough year for Missouri in the SEC, and might be for another 2 or 3 years.  Kentucky is only 1-7, but at least has a football team capable of playing SEC ball while Missouri still has recruits for Big 12 style of play.
Indiana 14 @ Illinois 21 12:00 PM Big 10 Network.  Both are 2-5 and 0-3 in Big 10 play.  Indiana has lost 5 straight after starting the year 2-0, and both teams are a combined 2-10 against FBS foes.  Illinois has been outscored by 29.5 their last 4 games.
North Carolina 28 @ North Carolina state 35 12:30PM ESPN3/ESPN Gameplan.  UNC is ineligible for a bowl game this year, but their playing to end a 5 game losing streak to their lesser known Tobacco Road rival and can still play for the division title.
BYU 13 @ Georgia Tech 20 3:00 PM ESPN3/ESPN Game Plan.  BYU is one of the best at stopping the run and Tech is one of the best at running the ball.  Tech QB Tevon Washington has attempted 86 passes in 7 games which comes out to about 12 a game; 15 is the magic number; fewer then that and Tech wins, more and BYU probably wins.
Ohio state 24 @ Penn state 27 5:30PM ESPN.  I like to call it the ineligible bowl.  Ohio state is already bowl eligible, Penn state will be before the years up and would be if they win this game, however both teams are ineligible for a bowl game this year.
#22 Michigan 20 @ Nebraska 24 8:00 PM ESPN2.  Both teams still have to play Iowa, but this likely decides who wins the Big 10 legends division.
#11 Mississippi state 10 @ #1 Alabama 27.  Miss state is 7-0 but have only played 2 teams above .500 both out of the Sun Belt conference, while Alabama has only lost 2 games in Alabama the last 4 years.  I doubt Miss state wins, but I doubt they get blown out either.


Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Detroit vs. San Francisco World Series

Tonight starts the 2012 World Series between the San Francisco Giants who became the 4th NL team to rally from 3-1 down against the St. Louis Cardinals and the Detroit Tigers out of the AL who breeezed through the Yankees in the ALCS winning 4 games to none.  I will break down the matchup (offense, defense, pitching, intangibles) and predict a winner.

Offense:
The Detroit Tigers have the majors first triple crown winner since 1968 and likely AL MVP (Miguel Cabrera).  Him along with Prince Fielder make up a great middle of the order for the Tigers, however both have struggled so far in the playoffs.  Two people that didn't struggle in the ALCS: Jhonny Perallta, and Delmon Young who was the MVP of the ALCS.  What I don't like is the week off could've killed both Perralta's and Young's momentum from the ALCS (haven't played since last Thursday) and if that's the case they'll need Cabrera and especially Fielder to pick up the offense slack.
Giants rely more on pitching and defense, but Marco Scutaro, NLCS MVP was probably the best trade pick up the season from Colorado; he set an LCS record with 14 hits in the 7 games, producing at least 2 hits in 6 of the 7 games and the lone game he didn't he left the game in the middle of it after getting hit in the ribs.  Him along with Angel Pagan set the table for the Giants by getting on base, however the 3-4-5 hitters of Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey (likely NL MVP), and Hunter Pence have had trouble knocking them in.  Against a great pitching staff like the Tigers, if Scutaro & Pagan get on base the middle of the order will have to drive them in.
Slight advantage: Tigers

Defense:
Coming into the playoffs, the main concern of the Tigers was going to be defense & the bullpen.  In 83 innings so far in the playoffs the Tigers have only made 4 errors and allowed 1 unearned run and made some great defensive plays in the ALCS.  In 108 innings in the playoffs, the Giants have committed 6 errors and allowed 0 unearned runs.
Slight advantage: Giants

Starting pitching:
The Tigers staff is on a roll.  They held the Yankees to a .158 average in the ALCS, allowed only 6 runs that series, and 5 of the 6 came in the 9th inning meaning in 4 games the Tigers allowed only 1 run in innings 1 through 8 to the powerful Yankees offense.  Through the last 3 games of the NLCS the Giants outscored the Cardinals 20-1, however Giants starters not named Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong have gotten lit up in the first couple innings.
Advantage: Tigers

Relief pitching:
Going into the playoffs, Tigers manager Jim Leyland said this about his closer Jose Valverde: "In order for us to win the Series, Jose Valverde will have to close games for us."  Leyland brought him into game 1 of the ALCS in a non save situation up 4 runs in the 9th inning.  He proceded to give up two 2 run homers in the 9th to tie game 1 at 4 (Tigers ultimately won 6-4 in 12 innings), however Valverde was never seen again in the series: he was warming up in the latter stages of game 4's 8-1 blowout, but he never appeared in the game.  Former Yankees reliever Phil Coke closed out all 4 games against the Yankees, but Valverde will have to pitch and pitch successfully in order for the Tigers to win the championship.  The bullpen for the Giants is the best and most important part of their team and will likely see more innings then the Tigers bullpen.
Advantage: Giants

Intangibles:
The last 4 occassions of a team sweeping an LCS and playing in the World Series against a team coming off a 7 game series have not gone well for the team that did the sweeping and sat around.  In 1988, the Oakland A's swept the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS and lost in 5 games to the Los Angeles Dodgers who beat the New York Mets in 7 games.  In 2006, the Tigers were in this spot: they swept the A's in the ALCS while the Cardinals beat the Mets in 7 games in the NLCS, and the Cardinals won the Series in 5 games.  1 year later, the Colorado Rockies swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS, and got swept in the World Series by the Red Sox in the World Series who beat the Cleveland Indians in 7 games in the ALCS.  The Tigers this year have better starting pitching then they did back in 2006: Justin Verlander is the reining Cy Young AND MVP and him & Max Scherzer finished 1 and 2 in the AL in strikeouts.
The Giants are 6-0 in potential elimination games while only 1-5 so far in the playoffs in non elimination games.  Even though they have home field advantage, they'd probably feel better if they went to Detroit for games 3 through 5 tied at 1-1 or even down 2-0 then they were up 2-0.  We know they can play with their backs up to wall, but in order to win the series for the 2nd time in 3 years they'll have to win games before they get backed into the corner, especially when they'll be facing Verlander for 2 games (1 and 5, and sometime in game 7 if it gets that far whether he starts it or pitches in relief).
Advantage: Even

Prediction:
Giants in 6 games.  They start at home, and have momentum from playing live competition unlike the Tigers who were playing simulated games over the weekend against their rookie league team and didn't even arrive in San Francisco until Tuesday morning.  In the 2010 World Series I was pretty much the only person that predicted they'd win the championship, and in that series they beat Cliff Lee who was almost as dominant that year as Justin Verlander is this year.  The Tigers starting rotation is better than that 2010 Rangers rotation, but the Giants offense is better, but I still think the Giants get it done.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

NCAAF week 8 winners and losers

Winners:
Collin Klein (QB Kansas state).  Could be at the top of the heisman race after he accounted for all 7 of Kansas state's 7 TD's in their rout of #13 West Virginia (4 rushing and 3 TD's).  Unfortunately for K-state everyone in front of them won this week, so they'll remain in neutral at #4 in the BCS, but as long as K-state can keep winning the Wildcats will be in the running for the BCS championship game and Klein will be in the discussion for the Heisman trophy at seasons end.
Duke.  Yes, they do in fact play football at Duke.  Duke was rolling their rivals from 8 miles up the road; 23-9 at the start of the 4th quarter, had completely dominated the game and looked well on their way to securing the Victory bell (What UNC & Duke play for in football).  However, the 1st play of the 4th quarter was a fake punt on 4th and 2 that went for no gain which gave UNC the ball in Duke territory.  The Heels would score TDs on their next two possessions sandwiched between a Duke field goal left the margin at 3 points.  Duke went 3 and out on their next possession and gave UNC the ball back, and following one of the craziest TDs I had ever seen, it looked like Duke football would fall back into the abyss.  The Heel TE caught a perfect pass in the middle of the field, the ball bounced around for a while, a Duke DB tried to scoop it up and run with it instead of falling on it, ball went straight through his arms and into the arms of the UNC backup QB who took the fumble recovery 4 yards into the end zone for the touchdown.  In previous years Duke would have folded the tent, but 2012 is a different Duke team.  They marched down the field and on 4th & 2 from the UNC 5 with 23 seconds left they got the game winning touchdown to get them bowl eligible for the first time since 1994 and the Victory Bell for the first time since 03.
Big East ranked unbeaten teams.  Cincinnati did lose (I'll get to them later), but Rutgers & Louisville both had come back wins to remain in the top 25 and remain unbeaten.  Rutgers was down 10-0 at halftime to Temple and rallied to win 35-10; Louisville trailed USF 25-21 and scored the game winning TD with 1:35 left to remain unbeaten.
Toledo.  Beat Cincinnati 29-23 to knock the Bearcats from the unbeatens and notch another quality win for the MAC this year.  So far this year the conference has gotten wins against: the Big 12 conference, the Big 10 conference, and the Mountain West conference.  Will probably be the best non BCS conference to watch this year.
Michigan.  There was only 1 touchdown scored in the game, but Michigan got 4 field goals including the winner with no time left to defeat in-state rival Michigan state 12-10 to become the first college team to 900 wins.

Losers:
Texas A&M.  Got the ball inside the LSU 20 yard line 3 times and only got 10 points to show for it.  That and one of the worst games of the season for QB Johnny Manziel was the reason they were on the short end of a 24-19 loss to LSU which pretty much knocks them out of the SEC & championship game race.
Baylor's defense.  In 3 Big 12 games they've given up 70, 49 & 56 points.  Not good, and no wonder they've fallen to 0-3 so far in the conference.
Gene Chizik (Auburn coach).  He did win the 2010 national championship but since that January 2011 win vs. Oregon, Chizik is a robust 9-11 since including 1-6 so far this year, the schools worst start since 1952.  Its difficult to fire a coach 2 years removed from a championship, but you can't take losing in the SEC, and in Alabama where the rivals across the state have won 2 of the last 3 championships and haven't lost to a non SEC opponent since January of 2009.
California vs. top 20 teams.  California's 21-3 loss to Stanford left them 0 for their last 8 against teams ranked in the top 20 with an average margin of defeat of almost 2 touchdown's (13.9 points).
Utah.  They only lost 21-7 to unbeaten and #8 Oregon state but 2 of Oregon state's 3 touchdown's occured off of Utah turnovers deep in their own territory (1 was an interception at their own 16, another was a fumble at their own 10), and a 3rd Utah turnover (they finished with 4 alltogether) was a fumble at the Oregon state 5 yard line on the 1st drive of the second half when the score was 14-7.  They may not have won the game anyways, but they certainly didn't help themselves.

Best game of the weekend:
North Carolina @ Duke.  Rivalry game, the crazy Touchdown, Duke becoming bowl eligible

My predicted top 10 in the BCS:
1) Alabama
2) Florida
3) Oregon
4) Kansas state
5) Notre Dame
That was the top 5 last week and all 5 won and aside from Notre Dame all won convincingly with Florida & Kansas state beating top 13 teams in the process, so can't see how you can bump any of them down.
6) LSU
7) Oregon state
8) Oklahoma
9) USC
10) Mississippi state
LSU was number 6 last week; they won by 5 on the road, ND won by 3 at home doubt they jump into the 5.  South Carolina was #7, they got crushed so they drop out entirely which bumps Oregon state, Oklahoma & USC up 1.  I swapped Georgia (1 loss to South Carolina) and Missippi statet (0 losses) for the final spot.  Even though Miss state has played nobody you play the hands dealt to you and no matter how bad the schedule is, you get rewarded in my book for an unbeaten record.   The next 3 games for Miss state are against ranked teams with 2 on the road against top 6 teams so in the coming weeks they'll either earn this spot and then some or drop off the page entirely.
Other's receiving votes: Georgia, Florida state, Rutgers, Louisville, South Carolina, Texas Tech, West Virginia.

NFL week 7 predictions

Baltimore Ravens 17 @ Houston Texans 21.  Both teams are 5-1 and the only 2 teams in the AFC  that are over .500.  Baltimore has injury issues as LB Ray Lewis is out with a triceps injury, CB Ladarius Webb is out for the year with a torn acl, and OLB Terrell Suggs looks to play in his first game of the year after tearing his acl playing offseason basketball.  Houston suffered their first loss last week when they got shredded by Green Bay.  I think they have enough to get the win.
Tennessee Titans 14 @ Buffalo Bills 31.  Shouldn't be close.  This is only Buffalo's 3rd home game and after this won't be home again until November 15.
Cleveland Brows 14 @ Indianapolis Colts 20.  Cleveland ended their 11 game losing streak last week.  Colts are 2-3 on the year but 2-1 at home.  One of their wins was over Green Bay, however they lost at home to Jacksonvillle, so tough to get a read on them.
Green Bay Packers 27 @ St. Louis Rams 24.  1-2 on the road (Green Bay) vs. 3-0 at home (Green Bay).  Rams play good defense, good enough to keep it close, but the Packers win in the end.
Arizona Cardinals 13 @ Minnesota Vikings 21.  Were back to square 1 on the Cardinals merry go round QB rotation.  John Skelton started off as the starter, he got injured vs. Seattle in week 1, Kevin Kolb came in and lead them to a 3-2 record (4-2 if you include the comeback win vs. Seattle).  Last week vs. Buffalo, Kolb is injured, so were coming back to Skelton.
Washington 17 @ New York Giants 27.  Giants got swept by Washington last year, but even with QB RG3, the Giants look to be one of the best teams in the NFC.
New Orleans Saints 28 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24.  Saints defense is awful, while the two teams the Bucs beat are a combined 2-9.
Dallas Cowboys 21 @ Carolina Panthers 24.  These two are some of the most dissapointing teams in football.
Jacksonville 10 @ Oakland 24.  Both teams are 1-4, so someone has to win, right??  Jacksonville has been outscored 51-3 the last 5 quarters dating back to the start of the 4th quarter vs. Cincinnati three week ago.
New York Jets 10 @ New England Patriots 35.  Good news for the Jets?  The Patriots are beatable this year, especially in the secondary.  Bad news for the Jets?  They have no passing offense.  Pats no huddle offense will really slow down the Jets.
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 @ Cincinnati Bengals 14.  This is Pittsburgh's first divisonal game while this will be Cincinnati's 4th of 6 total divisional games through the first 7 weeks of the season.