Tonight starts the 2012 World Series between the San Francisco Giants who became the 4th NL team to rally from 3-1 down against the St. Louis Cardinals and the Detroit Tigers out of the AL who breeezed through the Yankees in the ALCS winning 4 games to none. I will break down the matchup (offense, defense, pitching, intangibles) and predict a winner.
Offense:
The Detroit Tigers have the majors first triple crown winner since 1968 and likely AL MVP (Miguel Cabrera). Him along with Prince Fielder make up a great middle of the order for the Tigers, however both have struggled so far in the playoffs. Two people that didn't struggle in the ALCS: Jhonny Perallta, and Delmon Young who was the MVP of the ALCS. What I don't like is the week off could've killed both Perralta's and Young's momentum from the ALCS (haven't played since last Thursday) and if that's the case they'll need Cabrera and especially Fielder to pick up the offense slack.
Giants rely more on pitching and defense, but Marco Scutaro, NLCS MVP was probably the best trade pick up the season from Colorado; he set an LCS record with 14 hits in the 7 games, producing at least 2 hits in 6 of the 7 games and the lone game he didn't he left the game in the middle of it after getting hit in the ribs. Him along with Angel Pagan set the table for the Giants by getting on base, however the 3-4-5 hitters of Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey (likely NL MVP), and Hunter Pence have had trouble knocking them in. Against a great pitching staff like the Tigers, if Scutaro & Pagan get on base the middle of the order will have to drive them in.
Slight advantage: Tigers
Defense:
Coming into the playoffs, the main concern of the Tigers was going to be defense & the bullpen. In 83 innings so far in the playoffs the Tigers have only made 4 errors and allowed 1 unearned run and made some great defensive plays in the ALCS. In 108 innings in the playoffs, the Giants have committed 6 errors and allowed 0 unearned runs.
Slight advantage: Giants
Starting pitching:
The Tigers staff is on a roll. They held the Yankees to a .158 average in the ALCS, allowed only 6 runs that series, and 5 of the 6 came in the 9th inning meaning in 4 games the Tigers allowed only 1 run in innings 1 through 8 to the powerful Yankees offense. Through the last 3 games of the NLCS the Giants outscored the Cardinals 20-1, however Giants starters not named Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong have gotten lit up in the first couple innings.
Advantage: Tigers
Relief pitching:
Going into the playoffs, Tigers manager Jim Leyland said this about his closer Jose Valverde: "In order for us to win the Series, Jose Valverde will have to close games for us." Leyland brought him into game 1 of the ALCS in a non save situation up 4 runs in the 9th inning. He proceded to give up two 2 run homers in the 9th to tie game 1 at 4 (Tigers ultimately won 6-4 in 12 innings), however Valverde was never seen again in the series: he was warming up in the latter stages of game 4's 8-1 blowout, but he never appeared in the game. Former Yankees reliever Phil Coke closed out all 4 games against the Yankees, but Valverde will have to pitch and pitch successfully in order for the Tigers to win the championship. The bullpen for the Giants is the best and most important part of their team and will likely see more innings then the Tigers bullpen.
Advantage: Giants
Intangibles:
The last 4 occassions of a team sweeping an LCS and playing in the World Series against a team coming off a 7 game series have not gone well for the team that did the sweeping and sat around. In 1988, the Oakland A's swept the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS and lost in 5 games to the Los Angeles Dodgers who beat the New York Mets in 7 games. In 2006, the Tigers were in this spot: they swept the A's in the ALCS while the Cardinals beat the Mets in 7 games in the NLCS, and the Cardinals won the Series in 5 games. 1 year later, the Colorado Rockies swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS, and got swept in the World Series by the Red Sox in the World Series who beat the Cleveland Indians in 7 games in the ALCS. The Tigers this year have better starting pitching then they did back in 2006: Justin Verlander is the reining Cy Young AND MVP and him & Max Scherzer finished 1 and 2 in the AL in strikeouts.
The Giants are 6-0 in potential elimination games while only 1-5 so far in the playoffs in non elimination games. Even though they have home field advantage, they'd probably feel better if they went to Detroit for games 3 through 5 tied at 1-1 or even down 2-0 then they were up 2-0. We know they can play with their backs up to wall, but in order to win the series for the 2nd time in 3 years they'll have to win games before they get backed into the corner, especially when they'll be facing Verlander for 2 games (1 and 5, and sometime in game 7 if it gets that far whether he starts it or pitches in relief).
Advantage: Even
Prediction:
Giants in 6 games. They start at home, and have momentum from playing live competition unlike the Tigers who were playing simulated games over the weekend against their rookie league team and didn't even arrive in San Francisco until Tuesday morning. In the 2010 World Series I was pretty much the only person that predicted they'd win the championship, and in that series they beat Cliff Lee who was almost as dominant that year as Justin Verlander is this year. The Tigers starting rotation is better than that 2010 Rangers rotation, but the Giants offense is better, but I still think the Giants get it done.
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