Friday, October 26, 2012

Week 9 predictions

There are 4 matchups between top 25 teams on the gridiron this week including 3 matchups between teams in the top 11 which highlight the 5 to watch for the weekend:

1) #5 Notre Dame @ #8 Oklahoma 8 PM on ABC.
Notre Dame leads the series 8-1, but these two storied programs have only met once in the last 44 years (October 30 of 1999 a 34-30 ND win).  Notre Dame is 7-0, Oklahoma is 5-1 and both teams are still alive in the race for the national championship.  For Notre Dame this game, and a game @ USC later on in the season are their only likely stumbling blocks the rest of the year.  Doing no worse then splitting those 2 games to go along with wins over Stanford and Michigan, Notre Dame would seem like the choice to slide into the championship game should one of those top 4 0 loss teams (Kansas state, Florida, Alabama, Oregon) lose.  Oklahoma already has a home loss to #15 Kansas state (now #3) and hasn't lost two games in Norman, OK since 1998 when they finished 5-6.   The Big 12 currently has 5 teams ranked, so winning this game would more than make up for losing to Kansas state earlier and keep Oklahoma in the race.
Prediction: Oklahoma 31 Notre Dame 23

2) #14 Texas Tech @ #3 Kansas state 3 PM on FOX.
Kansas state finished 2nd in the big 12 last year, yet was picked to finish 6th this year.  Texas Tech finished in 9th last year and that's where they were picked preseason.  This matchup proves why preseason polls are meaningless.  This is the end of a brutal 5 game stretch for Texas Tech.  This is the 4th game of a 5 game stretch for the Red Raiders playing ranked teams which ends next week against Texas and the 2nd straight on the road.  Tech blew a 10 point lead with 2:10 to go in regulation, but hung onto beat TCU in triple OT last week while Kansas state routed West Virginia on the road in part of QB Collin Klein's 7 total TDs.  After this, Tech plays only 1 more ranked team the rest of the way (Texas at home) while Kansas state still plays two (Texas at home TCU on the road), and since the Big 12 has no more championship game, Tech still needs a big jump in the standings, and to get that juimp, Tech needs to win this week and next week, but Kansas state is just playing too well.
Prediction: Kansas state 31 Texas Tech 20

3) #2 Florida vs. #10 Georgia 3:30 on CBS (game in Jacksonville).
Every year with the exception of 94 & 95, this rivalry game has been played in Jackosnville, FL roughly half the distance between Georgia's campus in Athens and Florida's campus in Gainesville.  Florida has owned the series of late winning 18 of the last 22 meetings, but Georgia leads the all time series 48-40-2.  A Florida win clinches the SEC Eastern division for them, while a Georgia win leaves them in the drivers seat.
Prediction: Florida 27 Georgia 24

4) Kent state @ #15 Rutgers 3:30 SNY/ESPN Game Plan/ESPN3.com
Kent state is 6-1 with its lone loss to Kentucky being the lone game it has played against a BCS conference opponent this year.  Rutgers is 7-0 and rolling towards its first BCS bowl this year.  However, the MAC is a respectible 3-4 against the Big East Conference this year and Toledo at 6-1 knocked off previously unbeaten Cincinnati last year.  The conference can't possibly do it again, can they??
Prediction: Rutgers 24 Kent state 14

5) Cincinnati @ #14 Louisville.
These two teams came in the Big East together prior to the 05 season, and their rivalry for the Keg of Nails dates back to the days when both teams were in Conference USA.  This lost a little luster when Cincinnati lost to Toledo last week, but both teams are unbeaten in conference, and both teams look to be the biggest threat for Rutgers this year with Cincinnati having a slight edge because their game against Rutgers is at home while Louisville plays Rutgers on the road.
Prediction: Louisville 27 Cincinnati 14

Other games:
Kentucky 17 @ Missouri 10 12:00 PM ESPNU.  Tough year for Missouri in the SEC, and might be for another 2 or 3 years.  Kentucky is only 1-7, but at least has a football team capable of playing SEC ball while Missouri still has recruits for Big 12 style of play.
Indiana 14 @ Illinois 21 12:00 PM Big 10 Network.  Both are 2-5 and 0-3 in Big 10 play.  Indiana has lost 5 straight after starting the year 2-0, and both teams are a combined 2-10 against FBS foes.  Illinois has been outscored by 29.5 their last 4 games.
North Carolina 28 @ North Carolina state 35 12:30PM ESPN3/ESPN Gameplan.  UNC is ineligible for a bowl game this year, but their playing to end a 5 game losing streak to their lesser known Tobacco Road rival and can still play for the division title.
BYU 13 @ Georgia Tech 20 3:00 PM ESPN3/ESPN Game Plan.  BYU is one of the best at stopping the run and Tech is one of the best at running the ball.  Tech QB Tevon Washington has attempted 86 passes in 7 games which comes out to about 12 a game; 15 is the magic number; fewer then that and Tech wins, more and BYU probably wins.
Ohio state 24 @ Penn state 27 5:30PM ESPN.  I like to call it the ineligible bowl.  Ohio state is already bowl eligible, Penn state will be before the years up and would be if they win this game, however both teams are ineligible for a bowl game this year.
#22 Michigan 20 @ Nebraska 24 8:00 PM ESPN2.  Both teams still have to play Iowa, but this likely decides who wins the Big 10 legends division.
#11 Mississippi state 10 @ #1 Alabama 27.  Miss state is 7-0 but have only played 2 teams above .500 both out of the Sun Belt conference, while Alabama has only lost 2 games in Alabama the last 4 years.  I doubt Miss state wins, but I doubt they get blown out either.


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