Thursday, July 31, 2014

Winners and losers from MLB trade deadline

4 PM today, July 31 concluded MLB's done waiver trade deadline.  Players can still be traded after today, and are eligible for the playoffs as long as they are on a roster by August 31, and lately there are a lot of big trades that happen after today.  The biggest in recent memory occurred just 2 seasons ago, when the Boston Red Sox started there run to the 2013 World Series by sending Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett & Adrian Gonzalez to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  That freed up money they had allowed the Sox to get high energy reserve players like Johnny Gomes and Shane Victorino which were a big part of the worst to first run the Red Sox in 2013 had.  After today it is harder to trade players because each player has to pass through waivers.  If a team puts in a waiver claim for that player you can ONLY negotiate with the team that claimed him.  The reason this makes trading after July 31 is harder is that sometimes a contending or rival team will put a block on a player to avoid that player going to the team that needs him.  If a player clears waivers (unclaimed) that player can be traded to any team in the league without restrictions.  August will probably heat up with waiver wire deals especially when middle of the pack teams (New York Mets, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals) either go on a hot streak and get in the race or go on a cold streak and play themselves out.  With that said, I'm just going to grade on what's happened in July and not predict what may or may not happen in August.

Winners:
Oakland Athletics.  They have made the playoffs the last 2 seasons.  They have taken the Detroit Tigers to 5 games in the ALDS each of the last 2 seasons, however they lost each time to the Tigers, mainly because their starters couldn't quite match up to the front line Tigers sent out.  So, what did the A's do to counter the Tigers rotation?  In early July, they traded top prospect Addison Russel to the Chicago Cubs for 2 starters Jeff Samardjiza and Jason Hammel.  Neither are doing that well in Oakland however.  Samardjiza has a 3 era through 5 starts, but has given up 5 home runs already even though Oakland is a pitchers park while Hammel has been dreadful so far.  Yesterday's loss sent him to 0-4 in 4 starts with an era around 9.  That reason, and the fact this is Jesse Chavez's first full season might have put more pressure on Oakland to get a top of the rotation guy, and that's actually what they got in Boston ace Jon Lester.  They had to sacrifice offense and cleanup hitter Yoenis Cespedes to grab him, but they now have 4 proven starters in the playoffs: Lester who has 2 World Series rings to his credit, Samardjiza, has pitched in no big games in baseball, but was a WR @ Notre Dame, so he has plenty of big game expierence, Sonny Gray, the pitcher Oakland used in games 1 and game 5 vs. Detroit last year and finally the rejuvinated Scott Kazmir.

Detroit Tigers: The Tigers countered the A's move by pulling off a move of their own: after Lester, the next best starting pitcher on the market, also out of the AL East like Jon Lester, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher David Price.  What separates this deal from the Lester deal is that the Tigers still have Price through 2015 while Lester is a free agent after this season and likely won't resign in Oakland no matter how well he does or how much he likes the city, team, fans, mainly because the team won't be able to match what Lester wants.  Price likely takes the rotation spot of 2013 Cy Young winner Max Scherzer next year, but at least there's still the chance (albeit small) that Scherzer re-ups with Detroit in the off season.  Like Oakland, had to give up a regular every day player (leadoff hitter Austin Jackson went to Seattle while pitching prospect Drew Smyly went to the Rays in this 3 team trade).  They also shored up a suspect bullpen with the acquisition of Rangers closer Joakim Soria, though that hasn't planned out as the Rangers have planned.

Seattle Mariners: Like Oakland & Detroit have a great starting staff with Felix Hernandez, Hishashi Iwakuma & Chris Young, but with the worst offense of the 3.  The Mariners are sitting on a 12 year playoff drought and currently hold down the second Wildcard spot, but also have good prospects that they didn't want to surrender even though they needed the offensive help.  So, they were part of that 3 team deal with the Rays & Tigers and ended up with Tigers lead off man Austin Jackson, and only had to give up middle infielder prospect Nick Franklin who wasn't even with the major league team or had much of a future with them anyway this year.  Earlier in the day they acquired Padres OF for marginal prospects and last week picked up Minnesota DH Kendrys Morales.  All 3 of these acqusistions will shore up a suspect lineup, and hopefully having the Mariners play meaningful games in late September this season.

Washington Nationals: Only made one trade, but that trade was much needed.  With the hamstring injury to Ryan Zimmerman, they had a hole to fill at 2b.  Fill-in Danny Espinosa plays great defense, but just cannot hit RHP, so the team went out and got Asdrubal Cabrera from the Cleveland Indians.  Even though Cabrera is much worse on defense than Espinosa is, at least he is a power bat and can hit RHP.

The NL Playoffs: Currently, the largest division lead in the NL is 3 games (Giants lead the Dodger by 3 games in the West).  There were talks of Lester or Price ending up with an NL Central  team which would have easily shifted the balance of power to whichever team picked him up (3 teams are within 2.5 games of each other in the division: Brewers lead, Pirates are 2 back and Cardinals are 2.5 back.  A 4th team Reds are only 6 back as well) or the Dodgers which would have made them the team to beat in the NL.  As it stands, the 2 impact players ended up in the AL with minor moves in the NL which'll make the NL races and the NL playoffs more exciting to watch then the AL counterparts.

Losers:

Philadelphia Phillies: This is an old team, with a lot of money and a lot of bad and questionable contracts.  A lot of their players will be able to clear waivers in August because of these bloated salaries, but there were some teams that were questioning Marlon Byrd an guy that is 36 years old, makes $8 million this year & next and has a ridiculous vesting option for 2016.  SP Cliff Lee making about $20 million were getting offers as well.  It doesn't seem like much but for a team that seriously needs to rebuild from it's core that made back to back World Series in 2008-09 and has seen all 4 teams in the division completely blow past them in the fast line $30 million would've been a lot.  As I said they will likely be the busiest team in August, but they could have and should have easily expediated the process beginning with a couple players in July.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They are owned by Magic Johnson.  They have their own TV deal, and a Spanish TV deal coming in the next few seasons.  They have a plethora of outfielders on their major league roster and 3 great prospects in the minor leagues.  They lead MLB in total payroll.  They refused to include any of their top 3 prospects (Henry Urias, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson) in any deal for Lester or Price.  Either one would have instantly catapulted the Dodgers to favorites out of the NL.  They may still be the best team in the NL with Clayton Kershaw & Zach Grenike leading the rotation and with Matt Kemp heating up, but they'll be in a dog fight now with the Giants, Nationals, Pirates, Brewers, Cardinals & Braves.

St. Louis Cardinals: Another team that needed starting pitching help, that refused to include any of their big prospects (Randall Gruichek, Oscar Tavarez, Shelby Miller) in exchange for Lester or Price that would have easily changed the balance of power in the NL Central.  They picked up 2 good innings easters in Justin Masterson and John Lackey giving up minimal in return, however neither one is a game-changer like Price would have been.

The American League Division Series: The Oakland Athletics are playing to win a World Series this year and traded for Lester.  Their biggest challenger the Tigers matched them and acquired Price.  The Los Angeles Angels have a good back end of the bullpen with Joe Smith & newly acquired Houston Street, have a good 1-3 with Jared Weaver, Tyler Skaggz, and Garrett Richards and have a good offense with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton.  However, the rest of the rotation & bullpen is subpar.  Seattle made themselves a tad better.  The Baltimore Orioles lead a watered-down AL East, and the Toronto Blue Jays, once they get injured starters Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind & Brett Lawrie back from injury (all could be by the end of August) they'll turn it around.  However, the rest of the league is mediocre to bad.  The AL Wildcard game (Likely the Angels playing the Mariners or Orioles/Blue Jays (whichever team doesn't win the East will challenge the Mariners for second Wildcard).  However, the winner of that game has virtually no match for the A's & Tigers.  The A's/Tigers ALCS will be awesome, but unfortunately each team will have their ALDS opponent for dinner!

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